Political betting has transitioned from an oddity for those who follow politics to become one of the most popular areas of wagering in the United States. With increasing interest in the 2026 midterm elections, political prop markets and prediction markets are seeing such high volume they are rivaling many traditional sports betting markets. As a result of regulatory clarity regarding event contracts from the CFTC, along with the marketing efforts by companies such as Kalshi and Polymarket, the area of political market betting is now a year-round betting vertical instead of an every-four-years event.
The transformation was not rapid. The transition reflects years of court fights to determine if political election markets were considered gaming, commodity futures trading, or some combination thereof. Since it appears that several political markets platforms are operating under a federally recognized derivatives framework, U.S. citizens now have greater and more legally compliant access to political markets than ever before.
How Much Money Is Moving Through Political Markets
The amount of money being wagered on U.S. political events has been growing dramatically since the 2024 Presidential elections. According to industry sources, for example, U.S. political event contracts have generated close to $2 billion in total trading volume by themselves during the 2024 Presidential election season; and this trend appears to be carrying forward into the current mid-term election cycle.
There are several reasons why the industry is experiencing such explosive growth:
- New legal access to regulated trading platforms due to recent rulings that allow election related event contracts to trade on regulated platforms
- Increasing media coverage treating betting odds as a legitimate polling indicator alongside traditional surveys
- Lower entry barriers; Many political events offer bets that can be made with as little as $1
- The addition of new customers who previously traded in cryptocurrencies and now trade in political markets along side their financial derivatives
| Election Cycle | Estimated Trading Volume | Primary Platforms |
| 2022 Midterms | Under 50 million | PredictIt, offshore books |
| 2024 Presidential | 3.0 billion plus | Polymarket, Kalshi, PredictIt |
| 2025 Off Year Races | 400 million plus | Kalshi, Polymarket |
| 2026 Midterms (projected) | 2.5 to 3 billion | Kalshi, Polymarket, Crypto.com |
The Markets Bettors Are Actually Trading
While some political bets have a straightforward “win” or “lose” element to them, other types of political bets can be much more complex. For example, political bets can take on the characteristics of financial derivative contracts that require continuous pricing.
In 2026, the top categories for political betting include:
- The political party (or parties) controlling both houses of Congress after the 2026 midterm election;
- The results of individual competitive Senate and House races in swing states;
- Odds for winning each respective party’s nomination in advance of the 2028 U.S. Presidential Primary Cycle;
- Bets based on whether President Biden will exceed or fall below certain levels of job approval ratings at various points during his presidency (these are often structured as an “over/under” type contract);
- Markets for the potential change in cabinet members and/or leadership changes related to news events from within government or related areas;
- Betting on legislative outcomes of high-profile bills being passed by Congress.
Congressional Control Markets generate the most volume of trades due to their broad appeal and verifiable resolution criteria. In addition to Congressional Control Markets, there is significant volume associated with bets made about the result of competitive congressional races that occur in states such as Georgia, Pennsylvania and Arizona. The reason these races generate so much interest (and thus volume), is that many of these races are so close that traders believe they have the potential to produce genuine price movements.
Who Is Placing These Bets
Political market bettor demographics have some key differences from traditional sports betting. In addition to being similar to sports betting demographic bettors, political contracts also seem to draw people that are also into retail investing and crypto trading.
In comparison to other types of bets, common trends we see among political bettors (as of 2026) include:
- A slight skew toward older bettors than what you would typically find in the sports betting world, and strong engagement by bettors in their 40’s and 50’s
- There is a very strong overlap with those who participate in the crypto space and existing option traders. They view political contracts as simply another type of asset class
- Beyond desktop users, mobile devices dominate, representing over 70% of all political contract volume.
- The average account balance for these political contract bettors is significantly higher than most recreational sports bettors. It appears that this group views these contracts more as investments, not merely as a form of entertainment.
- Bettors exhibit increased levels of activity during the first several weeks after major news events occur such as debates, polling data is released etc.
What Comes Next
With the 2026 elections, it is expected that there will be an increase in the amount of money legally wagered upon political events within the U.S. As additional jurisdictions provide clarification to their regulation of wagering upon contractual obligations relative to events (i.e., political), and as more platforms enter the space of wagering upon events (political) and related wagering products, it can be anticipated that wagering volumes will continue to expand through the 2028 presidential election.
In other words, the current trend line is clear; politically related wagering has emerged as one of the most significant and high volume categories of wagering in which a specific group of individuals bettors exhibit a similar type of behavior. And, there is little reason to believe this trend will slow down during the 2026 midterm elections.
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